* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 66 63 54 45 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 66 63 54 45 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 67 65 62 54 46 37 29 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 10 13 23 32 39 44 46 51 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 5 2 1 -2 0 0 -4 -5 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 253 238 222 240 257 249 245 273 285 281 294 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 137 138 140 134 130 133 135 137 140 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 43 44 45 47 46 47 46 47 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -15 -6 -2 -1 0 -8 -6 -7 -9 -11 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 59 54 39 28 -4 0 2 -7 -9 -25 -33 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 1 2 -4 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1796 1789 1785 1759 1735 1672 1562 1425 1252 1053 835 619 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.0 138.8 138.9 139.0 139.4 140.3 141.5 143.1 145.0 147.1 149.2 151.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 17 19 10 5 7 12 17 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -32. -33. -33. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -11. -20. -31. -40. -47. -55. -63. -66. -66. -64. -62. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.6 139.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.25 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.3% 41.2% 28.8% 21.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 7.4% 12.7% 5.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.6% 16.4% 13.9% 8.8% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##