* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 59 59 54 47 38 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 59 59 54 47 38 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 58 58 56 51 44 36 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 10 10 18 26 33 41 44 43 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 2 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 278 272 257 234 248 244 247 268 280 272 271 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 138 140 137 131 135 135 136 140 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 42 42 46 46 48 50 53 55 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -23 -19 -8 0 4 4 -5 -12 -12 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 72 59 48 40 9 8 0 -3 -17 -4 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 3 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1800 1796 1794 1781 1770 1702 1601 1464 1311 1117 919 726 528 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.3 139.1 138.9 138.9 138.8 139.2 140.0 141.2 142.6 144.4 146.3 148.2 150.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 13 15 18 15 7 9 11 18 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -24. -29. -29. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -8. -17. -26. -35. -42. -46. -49. -48. -46. -46. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 139.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.15 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 52.7% 30.9% 20.2% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 11.0% 14.5% 6.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 21.4% 15.2% 8.8% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##