* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 56 54 49 43 37 31 27 23 21 22 24 25 26 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 56 54 49 43 37 31 27 23 21 22 24 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 57 57 57 53 48 41 34 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 7 6 11 17 26 35 38 34 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 3 4 6 5 -1 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 311 315 284 267 244 258 248 259 276 271 274 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 138 138 141 136 135 136 136 139 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 41 43 43 45 48 48 50 53 52 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -7 -19 -22 -3 2 8 1 0 -3 -6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 87 72 48 44 33 7 2 -9 -4 0 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 -2 0 2 3 5 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1781 1780 1780 1779 1780 1746 1671 1550 1404 1227 1023 803 592 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.8 139.6 139.4 139.2 139.0 139.0 139.5 140.5 141.8 143.5 145.5 147.7 149.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 11 11 12 16 19 14 9 11 20 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -28. -26. -25. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 139.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 23.4% 31.1% 15.4% 9.6% 3.0% 0.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 10.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 8.8% 10.9% 5.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##