* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182016 09/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 30 29 25 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 30 29 25 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 15 18 20 25 29 35 33 33 34 39 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 6 8 2 3 1 7 5 4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 230 237 233 225 248 237 250 247 251 254 244 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 125 124 123 121 125 115 109 103 98 90 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 39 38 39 39 36 32 28 28 28 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 18 18 16 11 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 25 27 30 26 22 25 27 12 -1 -20 -29 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 75 65 49 26 -3 22 -13 -16 -11 -30 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 3 7 5 11 3 8 1 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1221 1177 1133 1090 1047 946 830 730 671 611 579 601 639 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.4 24.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 119.9 119.7 119.5 119.3 118.8 118.4 118.2 118.3 118.8 119.4 120.1 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -35. -36. -38. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -6. -13. -17. -19. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -15. -24. -32. -37. -43. -49. -50. -52. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 120.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##