* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 66 69 69 53 49 45 42 38 34 30 27 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 66 69 69 53 49 45 42 38 34 30 27 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 67 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 13 20 27 51 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 13 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 198 201 231 225 218 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.3 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 146 142 139 135 125 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 130 129 131 130 119 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -51.6 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 52 44 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 29 33 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 15 50 76 113 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 65 94 73 61 85 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 3 12 24 -55 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1174 1188 1137 1103 822 934 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.5 32.6 34.1 35.6 39.7 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.1 62.9 60.3 57.7 49.8 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 21 26 32 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 24 23 15 9 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -14. -19. -22. -26. -30. -33. -38. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 14. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.3 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 27.1% 14.1% 8.4% 7.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.1% 18.8% 13.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 15.3% 9.1% 4.3% 2.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 66 69 69 53 49 45 42 38 34 30 27 25 23 21 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 65 65 49 45 41 38 34 30 26 23 21 19 17 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 57 41 37 33 30 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 48 32 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT