* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 26 25 22 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 26 25 22 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 23 21 18 17 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 42 38 30 25 16 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 1 2 3 3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 240 253 258 264 302 348 306 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 119 120 122 125 127 124 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 108 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 39 36 34 31 29 28 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -16 -33 -46 -65 -109 -145 -116 -99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -10 -19 -31 -15 -21 5 5 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 19 16 11 13 11 9 1 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1996 2080 2168 2261 2355 2499 2308 2131 1975 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.1 24.6 26.2 28.2 30.3 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.1 38.0 38.9 39.8 41.1 41.2 40.4 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 3 6 8 8 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 36.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 26 25 22 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 26 23 21 22 22 22 22 23 24 26 27 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 21 19 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT