* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 59 65 71 70 57 47 53 50 44 35 31 29 27 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 59 65 71 70 57 47 53 50 44 35 31 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 61 68 75 70 52 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 5 4 11 30 50 57 78 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 3 1 6 7 17 15 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 157 145 152 201 226 232 217 231 230 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.8 26.9 23.1 17.4 13.6 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 155 151 144 139 131 100 80 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 136 132 128 131 126 95 76 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.1 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 59 55 42 36 43 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 22 24 26 27 23 21 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -12 -12 2 0 44 81 98 147 190 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 14 47 77 62 79 76 76 66 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 2 3 -48 -114 -108 -56 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 993 1100 1189 1234 1228 1190 1056 863 1199 1366 799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.4 31.4 33.8 37.2 41.4 45.8 50.5 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 64.5 64.7 64.1 63.5 59.7 53.2 45.2 37.3 29.8 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 15 26 34 37 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 27 30 30 26 19 23 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -6. -16. -27. -32. -38. -45. -50. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 7. 2. -2. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 20. 26. 25. 12. 2. 8. 5. -1. -10. -14. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.3 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.6% 11.7% 7.7% 6.7% 10.3% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 36.9% 25.7% 8.9% 2.9% 11.6% 2.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 19.3% 13.0% 5.6% 3.2% 7.4% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 59 65 71 70 57 47 53 50 44 35 31 29 27 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 54 60 66 65 52 42 48 45 39 30 26 24 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 47 53 59 58 45 35 41 38 32 23 19 17 15 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 43 49 48 35 25 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT