* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 40 38 34 30 25 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 40 38 34 30 25 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 40 35 30 26 25 25 27 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 35 38 43 37 29 16 7 8 8 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 1 -4 1 0 0 0 -4 -3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 242 247 243 238 254 257 285 350 53 87 115 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 116 116 116 118 119 121 122 120 117 114 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 105 105 105 105 106 106 106 104 100 97 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.9 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 47 44 39 37 37 33 36 43 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 16 16 15 14 12 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 29 11 -3 -34 -67 -104 -136 -86 -68 -70 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 38 15 -24 -18 -18 -13 -19 -5 0 12 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 22 17 10 10 17 12 8 9 5 -8 9 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1790 1852 1916 1981 2045 2171 2303 2424 2275 2109 1980 1895 1820 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.0 24.3 25.7 27.2 28.9 30.9 32.8 34.5 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.9 35.5 36.1 36.8 38.0 39.2 40.2 40.3 39.6 38.6 37.4 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 3 1 3 9 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -14. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -23. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 34.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 43 40 38 34 30 25 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 18HR AGO 45 44 42 39 37 33 29 24 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 25 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 32 28 23 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 24 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 29 25 20 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 21 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT