* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 58 67 69 58 42 43 42 39 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 58 67 69 58 42 43 42 39 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 56 57 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 10 6 7 2 5 22 39 48 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 4 13 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 148 157 139 115 84 250 244 212 228 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.0 27.7 26.6 23.3 17.0 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 162 158 159 154 137 127 102 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 144 139 139 139 128 121 98 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 -0.3 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 61 61 58 53 40 34 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 21 23 25 26 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 8 -8 -9 1 41 53 66 46 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 44 21 9 44 66 92 47 76 67 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 3 1 -1 5 -24 -124 -140 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 794 867 952 1052 1145 1270 1241 1156 927 1267 1224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 26.9 27.9 28.8 30.9 33.4 36.3 40.2 45.1 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.5 64.2 64.4 64.6 63.3 59.4 53.6 45.9 36.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 16 24 32 39 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 56 39 32 33 38 20 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. -2. -11. -14. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 1. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 39. 28. 12. 13. 12. 9. 7. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.0 62.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.2% 9.6% 6.5% 5.8% 9.1% 12.6% 12.7% Logistic: 3.3% 12.5% 8.0% 3.9% 1.2% 7.3% 13.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 6.1% 3.5% 2.3% 5.5% 8.6% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 49 58 67 69 58 42 43 42 39 37 38 38 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 46 55 64 66 55 39 40 39 36 34 35 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 49 58 60 49 33 34 33 30 28 29 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 40 49 51 40 24 25 24 21 19 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT