* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 61 70 73 65 47 47 46 41 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 61 70 73 65 47 47 46 41 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 51 59 64 54 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 9 7 5 6 27 44 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 5 9 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 129 141 162 151 159 240 234 220 221 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.1 27.9 26.7 26.4 19.8 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 166 161 159 155 139 127 127 87 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 150 143 140 137 126 120 123 83 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 60 58 58 46 37 40 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 27 25 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 27 6 -8 4 3 66 98 156 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 25 33 28 22 70 76 49 77 82 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 1 5 2 0 -2 -4 -106 -163 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 790 837 901 998 1100 1233 1234 1143 865 1070 1410 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.3 28.3 30.5 32.9 35.5 39.4 44.5 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.8 63.6 64.1 64.5 64.0 61.3 56.7 49.4 39.7 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 14 20 29 40 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 62 50 34 32 33 18 5 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -6. -16. -20. -25. -31. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 7. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 31. 40. 43. 35. 17. 17. 16. 11. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 61.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.8% 9.4% 6.4% 5.7% 8.8% 11.9% 11.7% Logistic: 3.2% 9.9% 6.5% 3.5% 1.0% 6.6% 10.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.5% 5.6% 3.3% 2.2% 5.2% 7.6% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 51 61 70 73 65 47 47 46 41 39 39 39 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 48 58 67 70 62 44 44 43 38 36 36 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 42 52 61 64 56 38 38 37 32 30 30 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 43 52 55 47 29 29 28 23 21 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT