* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 29 25 24 22 26 26 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 29 25 24 22 26 26 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 33 31 28 25 23 22 23 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 29 32 36 37 41 30 17 10 18 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 243 247 245 245 247 253 253 273 340 20 87 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.2 26.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 117 118 118 117 119 119 121 124 117 116 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 107 108 108 106 107 106 106 109 104 102 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 53 49 47 40 37 32 30 30 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 12 11 9 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 26 26 34 33 10 -22 -38 -77 -122 -61 -22 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 66 43 35 27 -5 -13 -26 -28 -31 14 -3 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 17 17 19 13 10 8 7 4 5 15 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1646 1696 1750 1811 1875 2003 2140 2281 2412 2233 2008 1812 1676 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.9 24.2 25.5 27.1 29.1 31.6 34.6 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.2 33.8 34.4 35.1 36.4 37.7 39.0 40.1 40.8 40.3 38.7 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 14 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 9 4 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -17. -19. -18. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -15. -18. -21. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 32.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 5.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 29 25 24 22 26 26 25 25 25 25 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 29 25 24 22 26 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 34 30 28 24 23 21 25 25 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 25 23 19 18 16 20 20 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT