* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 47 47 45 42 40 38 39 38 35 31 31 33 33 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 47 47 45 42 40 38 39 38 35 31 31 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 46 46 43 40 37 35 34 33 34 35 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 15 19 22 29 33 34 23 11 12 18 13 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 3 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 261 259 250 253 247 241 241 249 254 253 85 70 48 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.3 26.2 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 119 118 116 116 114 115 120 123 123 129 128 116 111 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 111 109 107 106 104 105 108 110 109 113 112 101 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 56 55 53 49 45 39 34 30 29 37 39 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 16 14 13 12 12 12 9 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 83 93 94 84 66 60 39 11 -19 -52 -89 -49 -31 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 52 49 56 51 47 26 -17 9 -3 -32 -22 28 35 57 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 5 3 7 2 5 0 4 5 9 6 -5 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1503 1589 1676 1758 1824 1964 2096 2234 2372 2508 2436 2202 1956 1709 1465 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.5 28.4 30.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.6 34.3 35.8 37.2 38.6 40.0 41.3 42.5 43.5 44.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 1 4 1 1 7 6 7 7 7 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -15. -20. -24. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 31.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.6% 9.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 7.9% 3.9% 2.9% 1.1% 4.8% 2.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.3% 4.3% 3.1% 0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 0.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 46 47 47 45 42 40 38 39 38 35 31 31 33 33 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 43 41 38 36 34 35 34 31 27 27 29 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 38 36 33 31 29 30 29 26 22 22 24 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 29 26 24 22 23 22 19 15 15 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT