* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 48 49 47 44 41 40 38 39 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 48 49 47 44 41 40 38 39 38 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 41 38 35 32 30 29 30 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 1 5 6 7 10 16 25 33 35 26 21 9 4 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 0 0 7 1 3 -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 301 277 285 256 254 236 240 245 243 248 241 211 259 5 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.4 27.3 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 126 123 122 119 118 115 116 120 124 122 130 128 116 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 119 115 114 111 109 105 105 108 111 109 115 112 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 59 55 54 50 47 43 38 35 34 42 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 15 13 12 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 93 94 87 96 95 74 66 48 26 -9 -45 -88 -79 -58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 59 66 54 55 57 54 47 -5 -11 -27 -12 0 34 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 5 0 6 4 4 1 3 3 8 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1343 1424 1507 1597 1687 1892 2034 2153 2268 2372 2470 2481 2248 1984 1735 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.4 26.0 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.8 31.5 32.3 33.1 34.9 36.4 37.7 38.9 40.0 41.3 42.7 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 7 6 5 4 11 6 3 7 8 6 7 6 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -18. -21. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 19. 17. 14. 11. 10. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 30.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.8% 9.2% 6.1% 5.3% 8.3% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.7% 6.5% 3.9% 1.4% 6.9% 4.2% 3.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.1% 5.3% 3.3% 2.2% 5.1% 4.7% 1.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 43 48 49 47 44 41 40 38 39 38 39 40 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 45 46 44 41 38 37 35 36 35 36 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 40 41 39 36 33 32 30 31 30 31 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 32 30 27 24 23 21 22 21 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT