* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 49 59 66 73 80 88 89 83 60 61 69 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 49 59 66 73 80 88 89 83 60 61 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 39 44 51 60 71 82 90 89 74 54 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 8 8 7 4 9 11 18 41 51 49 45 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 2 12 3 4 8 8 9 SHEAR DIR 201 189 176 177 193 155 184 134 120 132 195 193 223 216 217 221 217 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.2 28.1 27.9 26.1 25.2 22.2 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 148 161 165 162 153 159 155 140 139 120 113 94 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 133 139 150 150 144 132 136 133 123 125 110 104 87 75 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 56 55 58 58 58 57 57 55 52 44 47 61 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 16 17 19 21 26 28 27 15 22 30 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 51 49 41 44 35 29 12 0 11 30 71 18 30 -4 -21 200 MB DIV 21 15 23 14 5 31 22 32 25 55 67 75 38 42 52 72 56 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 1 4 3 0 1 5 6 15 -9 -5 39 20 LAND (KM) 1398 1316 1197 1091 992 851 816 875 999 1122 1220 1312 1273 1256 1043 1111 1431 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.3 31.7 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.4 54.6 55.8 57.0 59.4 61.6 63.4 64.6 65.1 64.3 62.1 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 8 8 10 14 20 25 29 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 30 52 37 23 27 40 47 61 35 39 34 26 27 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 3. -5. -12. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 2. 4. 9. 12. 10. -6. 1. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 24. 31. 38. 45. 53. 54. 48. 25. 26. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 52.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.2% 8.7% 6.3% 5.5% 8.7% 11.1% 16.1% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 6.5% 11.4% 22.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.0% 5.7% 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 5.1% 7.5% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 43 49 59 66 73 80 88 89 83 60 61 69 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 41 47 57 64 71 78 86 87 81 58 59 67 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 43 53 60 67 74 82 83 77 54 55 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 45 52 59 66 74 75 69 46 47 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT