* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 54 55 53 51 49 50 48 46 46 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 54 55 53 51 49 50 48 46 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 48 48 47 44 41 40 41 43 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 2 3 7 10 16 23 29 31 16 9 28 26 26 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 0 4 2 3 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 1 12 SHEAR DIR 33 22 35 75 243 290 258 258 238 241 241 252 355 60 98 153 204 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.6 26.9 25.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 129 124 123 121 124 123 128 129 127 129 134 127 109 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 127 124 119 116 113 115 113 117 117 115 118 123 116 99 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 5 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 62 60 57 52 51 48 42 36 33 29 25 33 43 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 105 103 111 122 121 113 94 92 75 44 5 -44 -101 -74 -65 -45 200 MB DIV 41 49 49 66 68 56 41 40 35 21 -2 -41 -29 -33 24 52 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 1 2 4 2 2 4 2 4 1 9 6 -1 42 LAND (KM) 1199 1291 1386 1488 1592 1792 1995 2173 2196 2161 2172 2218 2309 2149 1776 1464 1246 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.3 34.1 35.9 37.7 39.4 41.2 42.6 43.8 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 8 9 13 17 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 10 7 6 8 16 17 11 12 8 20 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. -0. -2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 23. 21. 19. 20. 18. 16. 16. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 28.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.7% 10.2% 6.5% 5.8% 9.0% 11.7% 13.9% Logistic: 3.4% 17.8% 9.5% 3.7% 1.3% 6.4% 8.1% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% Consensus: 2.9% 12.3% 7.0% 3.4% 2.4% 5.3% 6.8% 7.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 54 55 53 51 49 50 48 46 46 42 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 47 51 52 50 48 46 47 45 43 43 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 46 47 45 43 41 42 40 38 38 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 37 38 36 34 32 33 31 29 29 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT