* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 53 61 68 75 79 82 84 90 91 76 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 53 61 68 75 79 82 84 90 91 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 39 43 48 56 67 78 85 90 92 96 89 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 10 8 2 3 5 5 1 5 4 7 17 49 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 1 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 0 -2 3 6 14 SHEAR DIR 212 222 225 201 189 242 330 335 331 295 67 291 311 257 219 227 220 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.2 27.6 26.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 140 139 142 142 158 159 162 160 160 157 153 141 134 121 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 133 131 133 133 147 147 146 140 135 132 132 124 120 109 97 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 54 55 57 57 56 59 58 60 61 56 50 41 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 18 22 15 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 48 46 40 37 39 32 22 -6 -10 -18 -3 -5 59 95 19 200 MB DIV 18 26 13 6 12 1 25 15 36 15 54 31 34 27 70 48 35 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 0 0 0 -1 2 2 4 2 5 3 -1 4 -23 -27 LAND (KM) 1600 1531 1451 1388 1292 1074 909 844 879 984 1102 1214 1300 1386 1345 1256 1064 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.3 25.8 27.2 28.5 29.5 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.9 51.1 52.4 53.6 56.0 58.4 60.7 62.7 64.2 64.9 64.6 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 10 9 6 6 10 14 18 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 27 32 52 23 34 38 70 39 39 36 34 23 25 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 13. 9. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. -3. 1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 26. 33. 40. 44. 47. 49. 55. 56. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.6% 7.8% 5.3% 4.4% 7.9% 11.7% 27.6% Logistic: 1.8% 8.4% 4.3% 4.0% 2.0% 12.9% 25.1% 63.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 1.8% 7.0% 4.1% 3.1% 2.1% 7.0% 12.3% 30.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 53 61 68 75 79 82 84 90 91 76 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 45 51 59 66 73 77 80 82 88 89 74 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 42 48 56 63 70 74 77 79 85 86 71 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 41 49 56 63 67 70 72 78 79 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT