* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 52 58 67 74 78 82 86 88 94 100 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 52 58 67 74 78 82 86 88 94 100 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 45 53 64 75 85 91 94 97 99 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 6 5 9 5 2 3 2 4 2 6 3 11 16 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -3 2 10 SHEAR DIR 205 223 221 211 192 175 229 97 189 95 305 32 304 281 247 218 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 138 141 143 145 143 163 161 164 161 162 160 153 150 145 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 131 134 136 138 135 154 150 149 141 137 134 128 126 122 114 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 50 53 57 61 62 62 63 62 63 62 59 52 46 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 12 13 13 14 15 17 21 28 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 47 49 49 46 40 45 37 36 15 13 -7 5 3 65 128 200 MB DIV -11 6 20 16 19 3 13 33 15 28 20 39 20 36 15 68 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 2 3 3 1 2 3 6 -2 -19 LAND (KM) 1582 1546 1507 1416 1336 1172 946 774 720 805 917 988 1083 1096 1132 1231 1279 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.4 23.8 25.5 26.9 28.0 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.3 49.6 50.9 52.2 54.7 57.2 59.7 62.0 64.0 65.5 66.4 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 11 8 5 5 5 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 19 29 32 37 35 24 55 64 61 46 45 43 33 31 33 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. 0. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 17. 23. 32. 39. 43. 47. 51. 53. 59. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 47.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.3% 4.0% 3.7% 0.9% 4.7% 9.7% 30.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6% Consensus: 1.9% 6.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 4.4% 3.3% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 52 58 67 74 78 82 86 88 94 100 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 40 44 51 57 66 73 77 81 85 87 93 99 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 36 40 47 53 62 69 73 77 81 83 89 95 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 41 47 56 63 67 71 75 77 83 89 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT