* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 27 33 37 40 40 40 38 37 35 33 30 27 28 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 19 18 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 19 21 20 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -8 -4 -1 -5 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 268 255 245 240 217 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 129 126 122 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 105 104 101 98 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 55 52 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 3 23 15 -12 -2 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 22 26 17 0 18 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 4 3 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 104 45 10 -8 -31 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.0 33.5 33.9 34.3 34.7 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.1 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.7 77.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 8 8 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -21. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.4 78.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% 1.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT