* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 45 51 56 62 70 77 81 86 88 91 95 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 45 51 56 62 70 77 81 86 88 91 95 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 44 50 60 73 86 94 97 98 98 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 6 5 6 7 3 1 4 2 4 2 9 11 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 4 4 1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 2 -4 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 207 207 220 215 205 198 206 302 17 1 21 357 268 304 287 283 248 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 136 142 145 145 143 163 167 166 164 163 162 161 156 154 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 127 131 136 138 137 135 154 155 152 146 142 137 134 129 128 121 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 48 51 55 58 59 61 63 63 63 63 65 60 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 14 15 17 18 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 56 47 50 44 40 36 34 24 26 14 16 19 26 30 32 200 MB DIV 4 -3 7 15 10 0 8 16 29 8 22 13 26 25 36 19 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -6 -2 0 2 4 0 4 0 3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1648 1604 1562 1520 1430 1305 1068 870 762 745 831 915 1000 1056 1006 991 979 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.9 48.3 49.6 50.9 53.4 55.9 58.4 60.8 63.0 64.8 66.2 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 29 22 30 34 45 25 38 56 57 50 47 48 50 37 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -0. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 35. 42. 46. 51. 53. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 45.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.8% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.8% 3.8% 3.6% 0.9% 5.0% 7.2% 26.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.3% 6.6% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 4.9% 2.5% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 42 45 51 56 62 70 77 81 86 88 91 95 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 41 44 50 55 61 69 76 80 85 87 90 94 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 40 46 51 57 65 72 76 81 83 86 90 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 33 39 44 50 58 65 69 74 76 79 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT