* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 48 53 61 67 71 74 76 76 77 80 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 48 53 61 67 71 74 76 76 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 53 63 74 84 89 90 90 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 1 1 2 4 5 6 14 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 5 3 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 -4 1 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 243 250 252 240 253 228 250 263 309 78 116 197 272 282 320 317 305 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.4 28.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 133 136 145 143 142 163 167 167 164 163 162 162 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 122 127 130 138 136 134 154 155 153 146 140 136 135 130 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 47 48 52 56 58 59 59 62 63 63 63 66 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 52 54 52 43 41 32 35 33 23 20 4 -17 -22 -25 -26 200 MB DIV 4 13 4 -1 5 6 0 4 12 32 5 29 9 27 8 13 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 1 3 0 -3 -6 -5 -2 0 2 2 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1793 1721 1658 1613 1570 1454 1328 1094 905 785 766 850 913 1000 1079 1046 1015 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.6 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.8 26.1 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.1 45.4 46.8 48.1 50.7 53.2 55.7 58.2 60.7 63.0 65.1 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 19 30 22 32 43 25 37 51 60 48 49 48 46 31 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 42.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2.3% 4.0% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3.6% 1.4% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 48 53 61 67 71 74 76 76 77 80 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 38 42 47 52 60 66 70 73 75 75 76 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 57 63 67 70 72 72 73 76 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 32 37 42 50 56 60 63 65 65 66 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT