* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 35 38 42 47 51 59 64 70 72 75 75 77 79 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 35 38 42 47 51 59 64 70 72 75 75 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 33 35 38 41 47 55 64 73 80 85 88 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 7 5 2 4 2 4 1 1 2 6 5 9 9 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 6 5 2 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 248 259 259 245 245 267 246 283 224 315 180 255 247 269 224 236 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 129 129 134 142 145 142 151 167 166 165 163 163 164 162 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 123 123 128 135 138 135 143 156 153 147 144 141 138 135 128 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 45 47 50 55 56 57 60 60 61 62 65 65 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 60 57 58 46 46 39 23 34 28 30 8 7 -20 4 6 200 MB DIV -10 4 16 2 3 20 -4 11 -6 33 15 40 10 38 17 27 14 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 -3 0 1 -1 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 0 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1843 1758 1682 1626 1582 1522 1374 1191 970 807 738 765 847 899 991 1034 940 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.0 44.3 45.6 47.0 49.5 52.0 54.6 57.1 59.7 62.0 63.9 65.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 17 19 23 33 30 34 34 28 49 50 58 48 50 49 52 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 29. 35. 37. 40. 40. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 41.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 11.0% 18.2% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 4.2% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 35 38 42 47 51 59 64 70 72 75 75 77 79 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 38 42 47 51 59 64 70 72 75 75 77 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 35 39 44 48 56 61 67 69 72 72 74 76 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 33 38 42 50 55 61 63 66 66 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT