* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 46 49 53 58 63 69 74 78 83 84 88 92 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 46 49 53 58 63 69 74 78 83 84 88 92 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 42 46 51 57 64 72 81 90 96 99 99 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 8 4 2 2 3 4 5 2 2 5 11 14 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 3 5 6 2 -2 -2 -1 -1 4 -2 3 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 248 248 254 260 279 310 181 267 271 310 253 281 223 241 234 259 240 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 131 132 134 141 145 145 153 165 164 166 165 165 164 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 125 126 128 134 139 137 144 156 151 150 147 143 139 136 137 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 46 47 51 54 57 57 57 60 61 63 64 62 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 13 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 67 60 60 62 49 51 43 34 36 29 31 26 20 23 12 200 MB DIV -18 -7 7 14 0 19 13 -3 8 14 32 10 35 23 25 32 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 1 4 4 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1945 1851 1761 1688 1623 1549 1421 1268 1038 857 758 741 808 880 952 1029 1005 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.0 43.3 44.6 45.9 48.6 51.2 53.8 56.3 58.8 61.1 63.1 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 20 20 31 26 31 36 29 41 52 58 50 52 48 52 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -11. -10. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 29. 34. 38. 43. 44. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 40.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.2% 8.7% 6.5% 5.6% 9.2% 12.8% 22.4% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 5.0% 3.3% 2.4% 1.9% 3.7% 5.0% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 42 46 49 53 58 63 69 74 78 83 84 88 92 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 45 48 52 57 62 68 73 77 82 83 87 91 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 42 45 49 54 59 65 70 74 79 80 84 88 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 38 42 47 52 58 63 67 72 73 77 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT