* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 32 33 33 33 33 32 30 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 32 33 33 33 33 32 30 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 18 18 17 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 21 25 28 21 13 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 320 331 334 349 349 323 268 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 145 145 145 142 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 121 120 118 117 118 115 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 46 47 54 58 57 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -73 -63 -68 -78 -25 -3 30 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -18 -7 -27 -21 -9 21 20 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 415 399 366 334 279 253 231 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.1 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.6 76.8 77.0 77.3 77.5 77.3 76.8 76.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 42 42 43 45 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.1 76.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.17 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.7% 5.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 32 33 33 33 33 32 30 29 31 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 32 33 33 33 33 32 30 29 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 24 26 29 30 30 30 30 29 27 26 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 18 20 23 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT