* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 50 52 57 62 66 71 74 76 79 81 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 50 52 57 62 66 71 74 76 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 38 38 41 45 50 56 63 71 79 87 90 90 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 13 12 5 4 2 3 2 3 2 9 12 19 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -3 -5 0 3 4 4 4 -1 -1 -5 -6 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 275 288 281 276 271 295 343 306 268 248 158 129 146 166 187 209 214 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 129 129 131 136 140 147 154 165 165 171 166 164 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 121 122 122 124 130 134 139 146 156 154 157 147 140 135 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 51 51 48 50 56 57 60 61 60 63 61 61 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 9 9 9 7 8 8 8 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 60 67 71 60 63 63 52 55 48 30 22 19 27 28 17 200 MB DIV 28 0 -23 -17 -16 21 -1 14 15 11 22 6 22 7 23 38 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2048 2171 2115 2032 1948 1777 1661 1569 1421 1215 1014 895 875 956 1053 1158 1138 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.4 23.9 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.6 38.8 40.1 41.4 44.1 46.8 49.4 52.0 54.5 57.0 59.5 61.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 10 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 18 12 10 18 26 27 33 43 38 40 62 47 39 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 10. 12. 17. 22. 26. 31. 34. 36. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 36.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.9% 8.0% 6.1% 5.2% 8.1% 10.1% 14.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% 2.1% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.8% 3.4% 4.1% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 50 52 57 62 66 71 74 76 79 81 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 50 52 57 62 66 71 74 76 79 81 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 39 42 47 49 54 59 63 68 71 73 76 78 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 36 41 43 48 53 57 62 65 67 70 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT