* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 34 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 42 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 35 34 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 42 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 33 33 34 36 41 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 24 20 16 20 17 12 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 278 293 301 315 338 350 328 244 238 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 144 141 142 144 142 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 114 115 115 114 115 117 115 110 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 45 44 45 49 55 57 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -51 -66 -67 -56 -81 -40 -12 19 -6 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -22 -43 -26 -4 -20 -7 14 21 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 395 402 409 404 399 370 328 282 262 277 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.1 31.5 32.1 32.6 32.9 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.6 75.6 75.5 75.6 75.7 75.9 76.0 75.9 75.4 74.5 73.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 32 33 33 35 39 34 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.0 75.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.4% 7.0% 5.1% 4.1% 6.2% 6.7% 8.7% Logistic: 0.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.4% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 35 34 34 38 41 43 43 43 42 42 41 43 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 34 33 33 37 40 42 42 42 41 41 40 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 31 30 30 34 37 39 39 39 38 38 37 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 23 23 27 30 32 32 32 31 31 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT