* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 26 27 30 33 35 40 43 47 50 52 55 58 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 26 27 30 33 35 40 43 47 50 52 55 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 24 23 24 25 28 32 36 39 43 46 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 26 24 23 16 13 8 8 7 8 10 9 10 14 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -1 0 1 -1 -3 0 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 244 256 267 277 291 308 327 318 307 288 284 295 250 276 245 240 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 125 126 127 130 131 128 133 141 147 151 150 150 151 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 118 119 120 122 124 126 123 129 136 141 144 141 141 141 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 67 63 61 57 58 58 60 64 66 67 65 64 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 37 38 37 50 56 53 58 51 51 47 43 49 48 45 21 200 MB DIV 22 17 5 -15 -6 -1 1 -6 3 3 6 -7 13 0 3 6 -3 700-850 TADV 9 9 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1349 1481 1613 1750 1887 2135 1922 1720 1529 1388 1287 1160 1021 937 844 665 526 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 31.0 32.3 33.6 34.9 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0 47.5 50.0 52.2 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 4 4 6 7 15 12 19 18 20 49 47 45 32 38 50 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. 10. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 29.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.0% 6.8% 5.3% 4.3% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 1.9% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.6% 2.4% 6.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 26 27 30 33 35 40 43 47 50 52 55 58 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 26 27 30 33 35 40 43 47 50 52 55 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 24 25 28 31 33 38 41 45 48 50 53 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 20 23 26 28 33 36 40 43 45 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT