* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 49 47 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 49 47 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 27 26 33 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 10 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 226 221 206 195 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 25.7 23.0 22.3 19.7 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 117 99 96 86 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 107 92 91 81 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 49 45 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 24 27 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 29 90 140 148 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 85 74 62 56 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -5 6 -8 -43 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 984 869 876 1020 1474 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 38.4 40.4 43.1 45.8 51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 49.1 46.7 43.2 39.7 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 28 32 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -7. -12. -16. -21. -26. -31. -37. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -24. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.3 51.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.5% 6.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 52 54 49 47 45 43 41 38 35 30 24 21 21 21 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 51 46 44 42 40 38 35 32 27 21 18 18 18 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 41 39 37 35 33 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 32 30 28 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT