* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 40 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 27 25 24 23 25 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 40 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 26 26 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 35 35 33 31 30 31 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 22 26 29 29 29 25 23 23 22 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 264 267 263 256 282 282 304 310 311 308 267 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 154 155 156 154 152 150 150 149 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 122 121 123 122 124 123 121 120 119 118 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 6 6 4 7 5 8 6 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 56 56 56 54 53 51 53 53 51 49 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -61 -47 -38 -39 -54 -61 -91 -87 -70 -50 -19 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 24 -3 9 32 -10 0 -20 -3 -11 -3 2 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 2 -1 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 59 69 74 86 98 112 111 98 79 52 30 5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.0 79.7 79.4 79.1 78.8 78.7 78.9 79.3 79.7 80.0 80.2 80.5 80.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 21 23 25 26 26 25 24 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -18. -22. -26. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.0 80.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.7% 7.5% 5.1% 4.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 40 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 26 26 26 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 38 39 38 35 32 28 26 26 24 24 24 25 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 34 33 30 27 23 21 21 19 19 19 20 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT