* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 39 41 44 45 48 51 52 55 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 39 41 44 45 48 51 52 55 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 35 33 33 33 35 37 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 23 14 12 11 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 -1 4 5 0 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 250 248 248 244 264 277 277 280 292 316 288 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 125 122 120 120 119 122 124 124 126 126 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 118 115 113 113 111 113 115 115 118 118 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 72 70 67 60 59 55 59 56 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 15 15 14 13 14 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 16 32 39 45 44 56 59 71 70 76 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 57 69 49 37 -2 14 3 -9 0 19 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 3 4 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 932 1062 1192 1323 1454 1692 1920 2127 2027 1912 1791 1687 1615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.8 27.0 28.2 29.4 30.7 33.0 35.2 37.2 39.1 40.8 42.7 44.7 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 10 15 7 14 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 18. 21. 22. 25. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 25.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.6% 8.8% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 2.7% 3.1% 5.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 6.8% 4.1% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 3.2% 1.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 39 41 44 45 48 51 52 55 58 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 33 34 35 37 40 41 44 47 48 51 54 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 28 29 30 32 35 36 39 42 43 46 49 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 21 22 24 27 28 31 34 35 38 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT