* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 60 62 54 53 52 50 46 41 39 38 40 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 60 62 54 53 52 50 46 41 39 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 52 56 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 27 23 23 17 17 21 31 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 4 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 206 203 232 245 234 205 204 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.2 25.7 22.0 16.5 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 134 130 116 94 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 118 118 115 106 87 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 -53.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 55 57 59 58 47 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 22 24 28 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 30 34 24 8 2 126 158 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 47 55 17 20 66 63 39 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 13 8 13 10 4 -2 -2 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1736 1822 1709 1568 1414 1069 904 1180 1375 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.9 31.2 32.6 34.0 37.6 42.2 47.3 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.9 53.0 53.1 52.6 52.0 48.9 43.6 37.1 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 18 26 33 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 13 8 9 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -6. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.6 52.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/14/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 53 56 60 62 54 53 52 50 46 41 39 38 40 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 53 57 59 51 50 49 47 43 38 36 35 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 52 54 46 45 44 42 38 33 31 30 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 44 46 38 37 36 34 30 25 23 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT