* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 69 65 58 52 48 45 44 46 44 42 41 41 43 44 V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 69 65 58 52 48 45 44 46 44 42 41 41 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 64 57 51 46 42 39 37 34 31 27 24 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 11 8 4 3 3 5 4 6 10 15 18 23 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 3 0 2 -2 0 7 8 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 200 199 179 185 181 123 86 15 2 268 278 251 237 232 225 225 233 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.4 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.9 25.7 24.7 25.0 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 123 123 123 124 128 123 124 120 122 120 110 113 114 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 43 40 33 30 29 28 31 33 37 42 47 46 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 15 13 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -12 -22 -13 -6 0 4 0 -5 -1 11 16 14 30 17 26 4 200 MB DIV 18 19 9 -1 2 -12 -27 -2 -5 -14 -2 19 28 34 10 21 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 2 4 0 3 12 9 13 20 30 27 30 17 LAND (KM) 876 861 848 854 860 949 1093 1267 1456 1666 1854 2031 2048 1840 1630 1444 1274 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 118.8 118.8 119.0 119.2 120.3 122.1 124.3 126.6 129.0 131.2 133.2 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 4 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -20. -27. -33. -37. -40. -41. -39. -41. -43. -44. -44. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 698.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##