* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 41 44 44 48 56 44 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 41 44 44 48 56 44 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 38 37 38 40 47 53 46 38 36 37 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 35 28 22 19 19 30 42 59 56 33 30 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 4 2 0 -4 -1 0 12 11 7 5 7 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 223 216 219 226 210 229 231 231 219 219 219 240 257 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 25.9 23.2 20.0 14.1 11.9 12.5 12.3 12.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 139 138 135 135 117 99 86 74 70 68 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 125 124 123 119 119 105 91 80 71 68 66 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.3 -52.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -47.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 50 56 56 55 56 52 38 35 49 61 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 14 13 16 17 16 19 28 25 22 21 24 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 14 16 17 31 9 2 95 104 64 56 72 15 179 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 9 35 33 30 57 16 64 62 81 54 33 35 44 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 11 11 18 12 11 8 14 26 -21 -62 4 47 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1583 1571 1570 1597 1635 1796 1534 1201 916 983 1351 1200 938 892 815 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.6 27.7 30.2 32.9 36.1 40.1 45.0 49.6 53.8 57.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.0 53.4 53.6 52.5 50.3 46.3 40.6 34.5 28.3 23.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 16 22 29 31 30 25 17 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 35 25 19 15 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -22. -31. -36. -43. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -1. -3. -0. 11. 6. 1. 0. 3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 16. 4. -8. -14. -18. -28. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.5 51.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 39 41 44 44 48 56 44 32 26 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 38 40 43 43 47 55 43 31 25 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 37 40 40 44 52 40 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 34 34 38 46 34 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT