* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 34 38 44 47 48 54 58 47 47 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 35 34 38 44 47 48 54 58 47 47 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 31 34 40 45 43 43 43 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 33 36 37 34 27 23 19 29 28 49 58 37 18 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 3 6 0 -4 -3 -3 9 13 11 2 0 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 221 220 212 219 212 211 224 229 236 233 223 222 239 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.1 27.5 25.8 23.6 16.5 13.5 12.0 12.6 12.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 146 146 139 126 133 117 102 77 72 69 68 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 131 130 122 110 118 107 93 74 70 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -53.0 -50.8 -48.6 -47.2 -45.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 50 49 52 54 55 56 57 52 41 41 58 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 18 20 20 19 24 30 28 34 34 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 10 15 20 40 45 24 61 161 140 145 158 163 254 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 46 28 43 31 64 35 42 70 77 83 53 54 27 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 14 10 11 11 16 5 11 23 51 66 -19 -18 47 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1596 1572 1558 1564 1581 1692 1636 1389 1028 832 1057 1500 1137 991 894 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.0 24.9 26.0 27.0 29.3 31.6 34.2 37.8 42.3 47.0 51.7 55.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.8 52.4 53.0 53.5 54.2 54.0 52.8 49.7 44.6 38.8 32.5 27.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 18 26 30 31 27 21 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 35 32 27 21 16 4 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -30. -38. -42. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. 4. 12. 8. 16. 14. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. 3. 9. 12. 13. 19. 23. 12. 12. 5. -4. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.0 51.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 35 34 38 44 47 48 54 58 47 47 40 31 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 33 37 43 46 47 53 57 46 46 39 30 27 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 35 41 44 45 51 55 44 44 37 28 25 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 28 34 37 38 44 48 37 37 30 21 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT