* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 104 103 100 90 81 73 65 67 67 63 65 65 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 95 102 104 103 100 90 81 73 65 67 67 63 65 65 67 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 95 102 102 99 94 83 75 70 65 64 64 64 64 65 64 61 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 5 9 6 10 4 3 6 6 3 2 5 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -5 1 0 0 -2 0 0 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 255 172 182 221 198 149 124 107 72 86 57 86 72 319 266 249 248 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 130 128 130 129 131 133 130 133 132 127 123 116 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 56 51 45 37 32 31 29 29 28 29 29 33 34 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 24 25 23 24 25 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -20 -27 -23 -7 15 26 30 33 30 36 49 57 51 53 36 200 MB DIV 42 56 26 5 14 -10 0 -11 -35 -1 -8 -6 -7 -1 8 8 -6 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 3 3 3 11 21 19 18 LAND (KM) 1065 1042 1021 1006 991 1000 1068 1177 1319 1496 1686 1880 2071 2042 1819 1625 1445 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.4 119.5 119.6 119.6 119.9 120.8 122.0 123.8 126.0 128.3 130.6 132.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 3 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 4 2 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -35. -37. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -1. 1. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 8. 5. -5. -14. -22. -30. -28. -28. -32. -30. -30. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.7 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 614.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.9% 30.1% 26.0% 22.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.9% 5.0% 8.3% 5.0% 3.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.0% 11.7% 11.4% 9.1% 6.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##