* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 97 98 96 89 82 74 69 67 68 66 65 66 63 61 V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 97 98 96 89 82 74 69 67 68 66 65 66 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 92 93 91 86 81 77 73 71 70 71 70 69 68 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 6 10 8 3 6 7 2 4 3 9 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 1 -1 2 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 248 254 163 183 225 133 134 99 79 54 52 82 47 300 288 258 244 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 133 131 130 130 131 132 131 132 131 127 121 119 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 54 55 50 40 34 29 27 25 24 24 25 28 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 23 25 23 23 22 20 21 23 22 23 25 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -19 -21 -21 -27 -19 0 15 32 32 29 25 33 48 51 58 67 200 MB DIV 28 52 58 26 3 -5 -9 -8 -37 1 -11 -18 -11 -11 -2 7 2 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 -1 7 12 19 18 LAND (KM) 1107 1090 1076 1056 1037 1031 1081 1175 1298 1465 1646 1856 2047 2073 1861 1673 1501 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.5 119.7 119.8 119.9 120.1 120.8 121.9 123.5 125.6 127.9 130.4 132.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 3 4 6 9 10 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 11 10 8 7 4 3 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 1. 4. 3. 3. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 17. 18. 16. 9. 2. -6. -11. -13. -12. -14. -15. -14. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.50 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 63.3% 47.3% 39.6% 35.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.2% 26.8% 38.3% 30.7% 18.6% 9.9% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.8% 25.2% 26.1% 22.2% 12.6% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##