* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 59 53 49 46 43 39 36 34 36 38 39 40 38 39 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 47 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 58 60 46 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 19 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 164 202 218 214 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 29.9 30.4 28.0 28.4 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 166 171 146 151 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 59 53 50 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 58 56 50 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 90 85 33 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 1 18 23 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -30 13 37 -95 -172 -435 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.7 28.2 29.8 31.3 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.6 111.8 111.5 111.2 110.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 19 25 6 18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 17 CX,CY: -7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -23. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -26. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -24. -27. -31. -34. -36. -34. -32. -31. -30. -32. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 25.1 111.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 17.9% 17.6% 12.9% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.0% 5.9% 4.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##