* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 49 49 46 42 39 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 49 49 46 42 39 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 48 47 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 14 16 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 2 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 267 260 252 220 210 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.0 24.1 23.2 22.2 19.8 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 103 105 96 86 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 46 49 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -26 -12 -3 -3 21 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 35 34 25 40 83 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 7 23 22 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1542 1653 1776 1907 1527 1170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.8 36.0 37.4 38.8 42.0 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.5 166.3 166.0 165.4 164.7 161.7 158.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 842 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -8. -16. -22. -24. -26. -29. -33. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -44. -57. -68. -80. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.6 166.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##