* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 47 47 49 49 49 44 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 47 47 49 49 49 44 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 42 39 37 34 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 25 27 28 16 15 16 21 36 48 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 238 245 241 240 234 259 248 226 237 252 263 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 23.9 21.8 19.0 16.6 14.3 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 128 127 123 120 113 104 83 65 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -56.1 -55.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 34 35 37 46 51 55 52 52 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 16 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -11 -21 -33 -47 -76 -62 -21 -4 -16 -8 52 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 21 19 5 3 4 25 31 38 58 13 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 13 14 14 10 9 9 14 12 19 -13 -26 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 457 597 742 887 1153 1405 1657 1786 1368 1060 1010 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.2 27.2 28.3 29.3 31.5 34.0 36.6 39.7 43.4 46.8 49.9 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.6 160.7 161.8 162.8 163.7 164.8 164.8 164.1 162.3 159.2 154.5 148.2 141.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 15 19 23 25 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -18. -29. -41. -53. -59. -66. -76. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -6. -17. -30. -50. -71. -82. -93.-107.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.2 159.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##