* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 53 53 50 45 42 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 53 53 50 45 42 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 49 44 41 41 44 45 43 39 36 33 35 39 41 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 45 37 33 23 14 4 14 15 18 15 17 6 27 46 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 8 4 4 SHEAR DIR 239 231 228 216 212 212 206 263 12 34 31 34 76 174 237 239 243 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.4 26.2 25.7 24.8 24.0 24.3 24.4 22.9 20.5 15.6 10.9 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 139 136 125 112 107 101 96 99 101 93 83 72 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 109 108 105 98 89 86 83 80 83 85 81 75 68 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -51.6 -49.4 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.8 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 5 4 6 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 56 57 55 52 47 48 48 52 56 62 53 51 49 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 31 33 34 30 27 25 23 20 18 15 12 10 9 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 8 17 39 22 16 -23 -37 -24 -17 1 51 93 141 181 64 200 MB DIV 35 70 61 12 14 23 25 -32 -33 -32 -31 -5 -2 28 43 29 -53 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 2 4 0 -1 -2 0 1 5 12 6 0 5 -110 -94 LAND (KM) 470 456 436 407 378 335 312 293 259 265 313 290 325 373 208 444 785 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.8 38.0 38.4 38.8 39.1 39.6 40.1 40.7 41.3 42.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.8 69.7 69.8 69.9 70.0 69.7 69.3 68.6 67.6 65.9 63.6 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 11 15 17 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 29 36 38 35 28 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -30. -30. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -19. -26. -34. -42. -51. -56. -59. -52. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.0 70.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 53 53 53 50 45 42 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 51 46 43 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 48 43 40 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 42 37 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT