* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 57 56 52 47 43 39 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 57 56 52 47 43 39 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 55 49 45 45 47 48 46 43 40 36 34 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 50 51 44 35 26 16 8 7 17 14 18 18 11 11 38 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -8 -2 -5 -4 -1 2 8 10 SHEAR DIR 239 234 229 227 220 211 226 222 18 41 25 34 44 78 218 246 270 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.1 25.3 24.0 22.8 22.9 23.9 23.3 19.0 13.9 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 138 143 146 146 135 122 104 95 89 91 99 96 79 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 108 111 113 112 105 96 85 79 76 78 85 84 73 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 5 4 6 5 7 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 57 55 49 44 43 45 50 54 62 68 63 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 32 32 30 26 23 21 19 17 15 12 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -1 4 1 15 19 1 -1 -15 -40 -15 -1 21 11 24 42 50 200 MB DIV 30 41 87 43 9 41 31 -8 -32 -51 -15 -30 -28 -3 16 10 -8 700-850 TADV 2 -1 5 3 1 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 3 6 20 15 26 21 LAND (KM) 389 400 415 394 374 334 299 272 241 222 211 301 281 333 313 240 545 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.9 37.2 37.5 37.7 38.0 38.4 38.7 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 71.0 70.6 70.6 70.7 71.0 71.0 70.9 70.4 69.6 68.4 66.6 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 10 14 17 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 56 69 76 66 29 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -29. -37. -44. -53. -60. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.6 71.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 57 56 52 47 43 39 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 57 53 48 44 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 55 51 46 42 38 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 45 40 36 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT