* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 50 49 46 44 41 36 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 36 40 40 41 41 38 36 33 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 40 38 38 38 36 33 32 33 35 37 37 36 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 39 41 38 46 50 38 24 20 12 7 20 10 7 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 0 5 2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 231 245 246 233 231 220 226 229 235 243 339 28 48 335 311 356 330 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.1 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.4 23.6 21.4 20.7 21.3 22.6 24.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 141 126 134 133 128 124 116 106 92 81 78 80 87 102 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 120 106 110 105 100 97 92 86 77 70 68 70 74 84 89 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.7 -52.2 -53.1 -53.4 -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 4 3 1 1 0 4 2 5 3 6 4 4 5 7 700-500 MB RH 50 45 44 45 47 49 48 50 48 47 47 47 51 60 61 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 29 33 36 35 34 31 29 29 26 26 25 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 40 0 8 5 -3 4 5 19 -17 -5 -36 -54 -31 -19 5 4 6 200 MB DIV 79 53 50 80 88 43 22 25 8 7 -14 -16 -41 -18 9 -4 37 700-850 TADV 10 29 21 0 -6 -5 1 -1 0 0 0 3 -2 8 7 10 29 LAND (KM) -33 -25 -13 72 191 235 228 209 207 173 166 138 146 197 278 311 335 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.6 35.5 36.2 36.8 37.6 38.2 38.5 39.0 39.6 40.1 40.5 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.3 77.7 76.2 75.0 73.8 72.6 72.3 72.3 72.0 71.1 70.3 69.5 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 12 9 4 3 2 3 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 17 3 8 12 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -10. -16. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -25. -24. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -23. -28. -32. -35. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.7 79.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 36 40 40 41 41 38 36 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 45 45 46 46 43 41 38 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 45 46 46 43 41 38 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 36 33 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT