* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 30 32 35 36 34 33 31 31 33 35 38 40 41 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 30 30 32 35 36 34 33 31 31 33 35 38 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 26 26 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 17 13 15 13 14 14 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 247 256 272 268 254 287 288 288 278 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 147 148 147 154 153 155 154 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 42 41 41 43 40 41 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 45 44 40 38 35 26 6 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 19 28 22 22 -5 1 -13 -1 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 -5 -1 0 1 3 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 485 592 629 691 852 1018 1176 1349 1518 1694 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.7 160.9 162.2 163.5 166.0 168.3 170.3 172.3 174.2 176.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 33 29 34 47 63 49 31 29 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 158.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.5% 12.4% 8.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.1% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##