* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 83 83 80 75 74 77 71 66 61 53 44 37 32 29 V (KT) LAND 70 62 48 39 34 30 30 29 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 49 39 35 30 33 36 36 34 34 35 37 37 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 17 28 40 51 46 33 23 14 4 8 18 15 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -5 -7 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 232 238 225 219 224 234 228 219 213 208 209 201 38 40 77 38 327 SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.2 29.4 28.6 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.0 23.8 23.0 22.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 173 173 174 161 147 127 131 135 135 125 114 101 92 88 83 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 160 167 156 141 125 105 104 106 105 98 91 82 76 74 71 69 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 6 6 2 3 1 1 0 5 3 5 4 7 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 53 49 40 45 45 46 49 45 45 39 38 41 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 28 28 29 30 33 37 34 33 30 26 22 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 38 52 37 12 -2 11 4 15 -5 -6 -35 -23 -14 -7 -14 200 MB DIV 76 57 74 93 70 59 40 25 8 24 12 -7 -39 -8 -31 -27 -30 700-850 TADV 8 15 26 26 8 19 1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 4 12 16 -3 LAND (KM) 72 -25 -123 -40 -55 -14 109 179 222 244 244 221 204 195 183 168 178 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.4 35.3 36.7 37.5 38.1 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.8 83.8 82.8 81.4 80.0 76.9 74.7 73.4 72.5 71.9 71.4 70.9 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 14 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 34 6 17 25 21 3 5 8 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 6. 3. -1. -8. -14. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 13. 10. 5. 4. 7. 1. -4. -9. -17. -26. -33. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.1 84.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 30.9% 20.9% 12.4% 8.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 18.6% 14.0% 4.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.5% 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.4% 16.7% 11.8% 6.2% 3.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 62 48 39 34 30 30 29 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 55 46 41 37 37 36 38 32 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 57 52 48 48 47 49 43 38 34 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 51 51 50 52 46 41 37 21 21 21 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT