* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 58 62 64 72 79 78 82 84 76 71 66 59 54 46 39 V (KT) LAND 50 53 58 62 64 42 32 28 27 33 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 65 43 32 28 27 30 29 28 30 32 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 14 17 17 35 51 41 30 18 19 9 7 7 N/A 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 0 -4 1 1 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -6 -6 -4 N/A -1 SHEAR DIR 298 292 258 242 261 233 243 234 226 208 226 208 186 151 28 N/A 42 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.6 29.6 29.1 28.0 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 160 166 170 173 164 154 136 116 121 126 132 126 128 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 142 147 151 163 143 130 111 95 97 101 104 100 100 102 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -52.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 N/A -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 N/A -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 7 7 3 4 1 2 0 4 4 6 5 N/A 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 62 58 47 42 37 37 42 47 42 38 38 N/A 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 23 24 23 27 29 29 33 36 31 29 26 22 20 LOST 11 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 52 52 28 65 34 23 36 48 29 26 9 -7 -4 N/A -39 200 MB DIV 29 57 70 81 63 90 69 23 45 25 13 27 8 7 -21 N/A -18 700-850 TADV 17 17 16 15 20 21 36 19 5 0 0 1 -6 -1 -1 N/A 13 LAND (KM) 399 346 247 129 28 -129 -88 -76 -15 33 112 216 289 363 394 412 431 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.6 29.5 31.5 33.6 35.7 37.2 38.2 38.7 38.8 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.6 86.1 85.5 84.8 82.8 80.4 77.9 76.1 74.8 73.5 72.0 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 14 15 12 8 7 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 41 43 29 6 6 4 11 0 1 4 14 5 8 13 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 15. 19. 12. 8. 3. -3. -6. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 14. 22. 29. 28. 32. 34. 26. 21. 16. 9. 4. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.0 87.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.0% 10.7% 7.3% 6.5% 9.5% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 16.3% 10.3% 8.1% 1.8% 6.5% 2.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.2% 7.0% 5.2% 2.8% 5.4% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 58 62 64 42 32 28 27 33 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 60 38 28 24 23 29 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 52 30 20 16 15 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT