* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 45 44 38 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 45 44 38 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 31 36 45 51 58 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 2 -3 -6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 273 261 263 264 257 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.9 23.2 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 152 148 142 140 98 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 134 132 127 126 89 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 68 69 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 10 24 52 51 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 39 59 62 44 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 5 9 16 48 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 494 472 491 515 483 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.2 38.2 39.3 40.3 42.4 44.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 69.0 66.8 63.9 61.0 54.6 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 23 25 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 45 32 12 28 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 1. -14. -27. -38. -51. -60. -70. -83. -91. -95. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 19. 13. 6. -3. -14. -22. -30. -41. -47. -49. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.2 71.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 09/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 38 45 44 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 35 42 41 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 36 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT