* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 61 71 76 76 70 63 55 46 39 34 28 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 47 52 58 57 52 44 36 28 20 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 42 45 51 54 51 44 38 33 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 10 13 10 15 19 31 43 42 53 49 41 25 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -5 2 4 2 2 -4 -7 -2 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 288 322 316 283 285 253 247 225 228 223 220 219 221 210 198 136 60 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 31.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.0 27.9 26.9 24.6 21.9 20.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 167 165 167 169 173 156 151 149 151 133 120 99 83 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 146 144 148 151 173 140 133 127 123 106 96 81 71 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 10 7 7 4 6 3 3 2 3 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 65 62 64 62 55 45 40 43 46 50 47 39 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 18 19 22 25 26 26 24 22 21 19 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 82 72 70 55 27 43 14 36 11 0 -25 -20 -15 -4 -6 -33 -49 200 MB DIV 26 36 44 27 23 29 50 82 58 34 40 20 24 20 -3 -8 4 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 4 9 7 0 10 7 0 4 9 13 4 -3 7 8 LAND (KM) 300 361 423 382 348 145 -89 79 97 292 450 394 317 235 168 113 52 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.4 30.2 32.1 34.0 35.8 37.2 38.2 39.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.9 87.7 87.2 86.8 85.2 82.7 79.5 76.0 72.5 70.1 69.1 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 13 15 17 17 15 9 5 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 39 37 41 39 9 26 31 30 45 10 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 30. 28. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -9. -17. -25. -33. -37. -36. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 41. 46. 46. 40. 33. 25. 16. 9. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.3 88.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.5% 10.4% 7.3% 6.6% 9.4% 11.4% 12.8% Logistic: 8.5% 32.7% 28.2% 26.9% 8.1% 22.9% 21.0% 4.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 16.4% 12.9% 11.4% 4.9% 10.8% 10.8% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 53 47 52 58 57 52 44 36 28 20 15 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 49 43 48 54 53 48 40 32 24 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 36 41 47 46 41 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 26 31 37 36 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT