* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 99 97 89 85 80 76 71 65 64 61 60 60 57 52 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 99 97 89 85 80 76 71 65 64 61 60 60 57 52 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 97 95 86 81 76 68 62 58 55 54 53 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 12 10 18 24 25 28 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 3 2 1 3 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 115 109 145 152 130 141 176 165 190 204 207 218 243 248 264 263 264 SST (C) 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.7 26.9 26.7 27.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 143 141 133 131 138 127 128 131 130 131 132 133 132 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 43 42 40 39 39 44 45 47 49 50 48 44 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 23 24 23 24 22 22 21 18 19 17 17 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 59 59 64 59 53 53 41 49 47 57 56 40 11 -8 -30 200 MB DIV -1 -1 1 -2 8 41 0 11 -9 14 -5 24 24 31 28 13 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 8 9 6 4 5 0 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 2090 1970 1849 1733 1617 1384 1138 900 649 400 239 177 171 333 622 965 1300 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.7 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.2 137.3 138.4 139.5 141.7 144.0 146.2 148.6 151.2 153.8 156.3 158.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 18 13 5 5 11 1 4 7 4 14 7 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. -36. -40. -43. -44. -45. -47. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -5. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -16. -20. -25. -29. -34. -40. -41. -44. -45. -45. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.9 135.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 905.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 43 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##