* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 41 46 56 64 70 79 78 80 83 77 71 66 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 41 46 49 46 52 60 60 61 64 58 53 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 43 49 57 61 60 59 56 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 8 7 12 10 17 16 26 31 31 20 17 12 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 1 -2 -3 -1 -6 3 0 4 -1 2 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 276 253 283 297 299 275 265 261 225 222 235 246 236 270 221 218 210 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.8 28.6 29.3 28.6 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.5 28.3 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 168 167 170 173 147 159 147 137 136 138 129 139 142 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 149 147 147 151 168 131 140 129 118 115 114 105 111 111 108 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 7 7 6 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 66 65 62 66 63 56 44 43 50 54 58 61 57 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 15 15 18 19 21 26 27 29 31 28 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 79 69 58 14 32 1 18 14 1 1 4 -19 -12 3 -5 200 MB DIV 60 45 40 45 37 52 43 41 66 53 21 38 94 -11 22 19 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 4 3 4 18 -4 -7 -31 -6 12 27 25 16 13 1 LAND (KM) 308 351 395 428 389 212 -11 104 194 283 487 675 685 718 714 714 717 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.7 26.3 27.8 29.4 30.9 32.3 33.5 34.7 35.9 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 87.3 87.0 86.7 85.3 83.1 80.4 77.2 73.8 70.5 67.6 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 8 11 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 38 40 43 49 19 47 33 17 26 25 41 34 37 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 12. 12. 14. 16. 10. 5. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 26. 34. 40. 49. 48. 50. 53. 47. 41. 36. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.3 87.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 18.2% 11.3% 7.5% 6.9% 9.9% 12.7% 17.5% Logistic: 8.5% 39.4% 30.6% 18.2% 5.4% 20.9% 18.4% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 19.4% 14.2% 8.8% 4.1% 10.3% 10.4% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 41 46 49 46 52 60 60 61 64 58 53 48 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 37 42 45 42 48 56 56 57 60 54 49 44 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 37 40 37 43 51 51 52 55 49 44 39 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 32 29 35 43 43 44 47 41 36 31 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT