* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 93 92 89 85 80 67 51 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 93 92 89 85 80 67 51 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 95 93 92 90 85 75 63 51 42 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 19 20 19 16 23 17 22 16 27 19 13 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 8 2 9 10 13 0 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 293 286 267 245 225 238 303 325 334 356 58 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.1 25.1 24.5 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 139 134 129 128 108 103 96 93 91 90 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 120 116 113 112 95 89 82 79 79 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -53.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 35 37 36 36 40 41 40 42 46 48 47 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 27 27 29 30 26 20 13 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -41 -27 -2 -16 -37 -58 -76 -74 -92 -101 -79 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 18 16 40 53 46 14 -23 -48 -55 -35 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 2 14 24 25 0 18 -5 15 27 37 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1535 1486 1430 1389 1372 1504 1732 1929 1742 1536 1332 1136 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.0 33.5 34.3 35.0 36.7 37.9 38.6 39.1 39.4 40.2 41.3 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.5 51.4 50.3 48.8 47.3 43.4 39.2 35.0 31.8 29.4 27.2 25.1 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 18 17 15 11 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 11 11 9 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -32. -41. -48. -53. -59. -62. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -3. -12. -22. -29. -38. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -28. -44. -62. -75. -87. -92. -90. -88. -86. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.4 52.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 892.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 1.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 4.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 14( 29) 11( 36) 10( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 93 92 89 85 80 67 51 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 91 88 84 79 66 50 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 87 83 78 65 49 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 78 73 60 44 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 72 67 54 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 73 68 55 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 93 84 78 74 69 56 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS