* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 44 53 64 69 78 84 84 86 86 77 70 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 44 53 43 49 58 64 64 66 66 57 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 40 44 52 60 62 63 60 56 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 13 8 9 11 12 10 16 28 30 27 23 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 -5 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 0 7 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 284 276 254 284 308 267 281 258 255 220 227 238 244 221 208 206 208 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.9 29.2 29.2 28.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 27.6 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 169 168 168 172 173 157 157 149 134 135 138 130 143 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 149 149 147 148 153 170 139 139 130 114 111 112 106 114 107 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 10 8 10 6 7 6 7 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 64 66 65 64 67 62 50 43 48 55 59 64 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 16 17 20 19 24 27 28 30 31 26 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 91 84 83 79 73 45 5 24 5 26 18 -3 20 16 -10 -22 2 200 MB DIV 23 59 48 41 43 39 32 55 47 74 33 27 51 37 31 22 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 2 4 4 16 6 1 -27 -17 -3 20 10 7 8 2 LAND (KM) 266 297 327 383 439 324 156 -85 161 252 365 591 700 674 672 610 574 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.9 28.4 29.9 31.3 32.5 33.7 34.8 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.1 87.4 87.3 87.2 86.2 84.4 82.2 79.3 75.9 72.5 69.3 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 10 12 13 15 16 15 12 9 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 46 42 39 43 28 9 40 44 28 26 21 27 31 46 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 10. 14. 14. 15. 15. 8. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 14. 23. 34. 39. 48. 54. 54. 56. 56. 47. 40. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 86.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.1% 9.6% 6.3% 5.6% 8.9% 11.6% 19.5% Logistic: 4.8% 24.5% 14.3% 8.5% 3.2% 22.2% 28.7% 24.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.9% 13.4% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 10.4% 13.5% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 44 53 43 49 58 64 64 66 66 57 49 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 41 50 40 46 55 61 61 63 63 54 46 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 36 45 35 41 50 56 56 58 58 49 41 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 38 28 34 43 49 49 51 51 42 34 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT